[Cryptography] Has quantum cryptanalysis actually achieved anything?

[Ron Garret]

> On Feb 24, 2025, at 2:03 PM, Jon Callas <jon at callas.org> wrote:
> 
> 
>> On Feb 24, 2025, at 12:59, Ron Garret <ron at flownet.com> wrote:
>> 
>> 
>>> On Feb 23, 2025, at 5:23 PM, rcs at xmission.com wrote:
>>> 
>>> You could add a third track -- Minsky's failed prediction that
>>> "within ten years, a machine will be the World Chess Champion."
>> 
>> I wouldn't consider that a failed prediction.  He was only off by about 40 years.  Compare that to, say, flying cars and it looks pretty good, especially when you consider that a world-champion chess machine today costs a few hundred dollars and fits in your pocket (and is also a communicator and a tricorder).
> 
> I hear you, Ron.
> 
> At the same time, if someone predicts event E in time T, and that event happens at time 4T, how is that a success? If it is a success, then aren't all the doomsday cults that have missed predictions of the world ending successful? I mean, it didn't happen today, and that's okay?

It's a judgement call, of course.  I worked in AI research for about 15 years, from the mid 1980s to the early 2000s.  I quit because I thought that the field wasn't going anywhere and no significant progress would be made in my lifetime.  It took about 20 years for my prediction to be falsified rather spectacularly.  I count that as getting it very badly wrong.

On the other hand, I'm still confidently predicting that Jesus will not return any time soon.  So I guess I draw the line somewhere between 20 and 2000 years.  YMMV.

The interesting cases of course are commercially viable fusion power and quantum crypto.  I'm still pretty bearish about fusion, recent advances notwithstanding.  I don't know where I stand on quantum crypto any more.  I used to be pessimistic, but progress has been surprisingly steady with no indications of any fundamental limits being hit.  I guess I'm just *hoping* it won't work because having to replace all my ECC code will just be a colossal PITA.

rg