[Cryptography] Has quantum cryptanalysis actually achieved anything?

[Jon Callas]

> On Feb 24, 2025, at 12:59, Ron Garret <ron at flownet.com> wrote:
> 
> 
>> On Feb 23, 2025, at 5:23 PM, rcs at xmission.com wrote:
>> 
>> You could add a third track -- Minsky's failed prediction that
>> "within ten years, a machine will be the World Chess Champion."
> 
> I wouldn't consider that a failed prediction.  He was only off by about 40 years.  Compare that to, say, flying cars and it looks pretty good, especially when you consider that a world-champion chess machine today costs a few hundred dollars and fits in your pocket (and is also a communicator and a tricorder).

I hear you, Ron.

At the same time, if someone predicts event E in time T, and that event happens at time 4T, how is that a success? If it is a success, then aren't all the doomsday cults that have missed predictions of the world ending successful? I mean, it didn't happen today, and that's okay?

(Cue the Bohr aphorism about how predictions are difficult, especially about the future.)

	Jon