[Cryptography] Why Quantum Cryptanalysis is Bollocks

[Phillip Hallam-Baker]

On Sat, Aug 3, 2024 at 11:40 AM Ralf Senderek <crypto at senderek.ie> wrote:

>
> On Fri, 2 Aug 2024, Phillip Hallam-Baker wrote:
>
> > I estimate there to be at least a 1% chance that someone will build a
> CRQC
> > within a decade, it is highly unlikely to be much more [...]
> >
> > The notion that you can stack quantum states infinitely is not proven by
> > experiment and there is a good reason to suspect you can't - the states
> > collapse. What if the probability of collapse increases with the number
> of
> > stacked states?
>
> You have just stated the empirical reason why the chance is not 1% but
> probably 0.0001% or much less. So what is the reason to direct as many
> resources to fend against this "threat" given all the other problems
> we face?
>

I was having a discussion with Ross Anderson about this, unfortunately he
dropped out of the conversation when he got sick.

I don't know what the probability of the states stacking is, either they
stack or they don't. The challenge is to work out which one it is. Being an
experimental physicist, I see the quantum machines as being primarily a
means of investigating that proposition.

As always, we would really like to upset the theorists, that is how we roll.

The issue with the superconducting machines is subtly different - nobody
knows what the superconductivity phenomenon is about. Are Josephson
junction machines really tapping a quantum phenomenon or a macro phenomenon
that merely mimics a quantum one?

And then there is the question of consciousness and free will. In case folk
haven't being paying attention it is rather surprising that we exist in a
universe that is exactly right for us to exist in, without the ability to
prove or disprove the existence of a God, existence of freewill, travel
faster than light. If quantum effects can occur in synapses, we are not
deterministic devices.

So it is very important work to do but nobody should expect it to deliver a
feasible model of computation.
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