[Cryptography] Timing of cyberattacks -- is this a joke?
Paul Ferguson
fergdawgster at mykolab.com
Tue Jan 21 13:53:34 EST 2014
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On 1/21/2014 4:32 AM, Stephan Neuhaus wrote:
> This paper http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/01/08/1322638111
> has been making some waves; I've heard it discussed in several
> podcasts to which I subscribe.
>
> Mathematically, the paper is not very difficult, and the treatment
> more than superficial (using tables to find the optimum of a smooth
> function of two variables), and some assumptions questionable
> (constant payoff discount rate), but from a practical perspective,
> it's useless because none of the parameters that go into the
> equations can be estimated robustly. (As far as I could see,
> there's also no discussion of how sensitive the equations are to
> errors in the parameter estimates.)
>
> So my question is: is this paper just an elaborate hoax or is this
> to be taken seriously? To be honest, it has the feel of the Sokal
> paper, just without the latter's excellent exploitation of jargon.
> (Or perhaps I'm just too blind to see it.)
>
I am no mathematician, so allow me to get that out there before I say
anything else. :-)
Having sad that, I fail to see how *any* mathematical model can
forecast *any* attack on the Internet, since most of them are
instances of opportunism.
Am I willing to be convinced otherwise, but this smells like some
academic thesis with no real basis in reality.
Of course, I am willing to be wrong. :-)
- - ferg
- --
Paul Ferguson
PGP Public Key ID: 0x54DC85B2
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