[Cryptography] Timing of cyberattacks -- is this a joke?

Stephan Neuhaus stephan.neuhaus at tik.ee.ethz.ch
Tue Jan 21 07:32:18 EST 2014


This paper http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/01/08/1322638111 has 
been making some waves; I've heard it discussed in several podcasts to 
which I subscribe.

Mathematically, the paper is not very difficult, and the treatment more 
than superficial (using tables to find the optimum of a smooth function 
of two variables), and some assumptions questionable (constant payoff 
discount rate), but from a practical perspective, it's useless because 
none of the parameters that go into the equations can be estimated 
robustly. (As far as I could see, there's also no discussion of how 
sensitive the equations are to errors in the parameter estimates.)

So my question is: is this paper just an elaborate hoax or is this to be 
taken seriously? To be honest, it has the feel of the Sokal paper, just 
without the latter's excellent exploitation of jargon. (Or perhaps I'm 
just too blind to see it.)

Fun,

Stephan


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