[Cryptography] Iran and murder

[John Kelsey]

The problem with offensive cyberwarfare is that, given the imbalance between attackers and defenders and the expanding use of computer controls in all sorts of systems, a cyber war between two advanced countries will not decide anything militarily, but will leave both combattants much poorer than they were previously, cause some death and a lot of hardship and bitterness, and leave the actual hot war to be fought. 

Imagine a conflict that starts with both countries wrecking a lot of each others' infrastructure--causing refineries to burn, factories to wreck expensive equipment, nuclear plants to melt down, etc.  A week later, that phase of the war is over.  Both countries are, at that point, probalby 10-20% poorer than they were a week earlier.  Both countries have lots of really bitter people out for blood, because someone they care about was killed or their job's gone and their house burned down or whatever.  But probably there's been little actual degradation of their standard war-fighting ability.  Their civilian aviation system may be shut down, some planes may even have been crashed, but their bombers and fighters and missiles are mostly still working.  Fuel and spare parts may be hard to come by, but the military will certainly get first pick.  My guess is that what comes next is that the two countries have a standard hot war, but with the pleasant addition of a great depression sized economic collapse for both right in the middle of it.    

--John