<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><br class=""><div><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class=""><div class=""><blockquote type="cite" class="">An analysis back at the beginning of 2018 claimed there were 170 million paying customers… an estimate about 7 months back reported 585 million paid subscribers across all Apple services.<br class=""></blockquote><br class="">I appreciate your methodology, and that was my assumption, roughly, as well… There are also 290 million users of Apple hardware, which I had taken to be a maximum bound.</div></div></blockquote>Apple itself said earlier this year that there were more than 1 billion active iPhones, and 1.65 billion total Apple devices in active use. That's world-wide. Apple doesn't break things down by country, but estimates are between 113 and 118 million iPhones in the US.</div><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class=""><div class=""> But this is all speculation, so I guess I’ll just wait and see.<br class=""></div></div></blockquote>Agreed.</div><div><br class=""></div>[Analyis using paths at the AS level, going up to paths of length 6.]<div class="">What matters is the number our routers you have to go through. Here's a traceroute I just took:</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class="">traceroute to <a href="http://google.com" class="">google.com</a> (142.250.80.110), 64 hops max, 52 byte packets</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 1 10.0.1.1 (10.0.1.1) 3.336 ms 2.514 ms 1.221 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 2 192.168.254.254 (192.168.254.254) 4.040 ms 3.369 ms 3.704 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 3 32.213.36.2 (32.213.36.2) 13.092 ms 12.752 ms 9.592 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 4 * 32.223.0.224 (32.223.0.224) 12.650 ms 11.186 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 5 32.222.231.21 (32.222.231.21) 14.453 ms 12.526 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 32.223.104.37 (32.223.104.37) 23.518 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 6 ae4---0.<a href="http://car01.wlfr.ct.frontiernet.net" class="">car01.wlfr.ct.frontiernet.net</a> (74.40.71.93) 15.127 ms 12.513 ms 13.199 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 7 ae3---0.<a href="http://scr01.sccs.nj.frontiernet.net" class="">scr01.sccs.nj.frontiernet.net</a> (74.40.3.233) 14.871 ms 15.067 ms 14.445 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 8 ae0---0.<a href="http://scr01.sccs.nj.frontiernet.net" class="">scr01.sccs.nj.frontiernet.net</a> (74.40.3.234) 14.450 ms 15.224 ms 14.396 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 9 74.43.94.21 (74.43.94.21) 15.700 ms 15.391 ms 14.437 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class="">10 108.170.248.97 (108.170.248.97) 14.746 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 108.170.248.33 (108.170.248.33) 15.364 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 108.170.248.97 (108.170.248.97) 17.730 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class="">11 142.251.65.115 (142.251.65.115) 15.045 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 142.251.65.113 (142.251.65.113) 14.958 ms 20.643 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class="">12 <a href="http://lga34s36-in-f14.1e100.net" class="">lga34s36-in-f14.1e100.net</a> (142.250.80.110) 14.506 ms 13.952 ms 14.552 ms</span></div></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-family: Courier; font-size: 14px;" class="">OK, the first three hops are just to get out of the house, but still there's a lot going on after that. There are six hops just internal to Frontier!</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-family: Courier; font-size: 14px;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><a href="http://apple.com" class="">apple.com</a> takes an additional hop:</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class="">traceroute to <a href="http://apple.com" class="">apple.com</a> (17.253.144.10), 64 hops max, 52 byte packets</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 1 10.0.1.1 (10.0.1.1) 2.714 ms 1.331 ms 1.340 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 2 192.168.254.254 (192.168.254.254) 3.254 ms 4.721 ms 3.198 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 3 32.213.36.2 (32.213.36.2) 13.344 ms 10.816 ms 11.832 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 4 32.223.0.224 (32.223.0.224) 12.977 ms 22.479 ms 11.816 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 5 32.222.231.21 (32.222.231.21) 10.479 ms 17.499 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 32.223.104.33 (32.223.104.33) 13.047 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 6 ae4---0.<a href="http://car01.wlfr.ct.frontiernet.net" class="">car01.wlfr.ct.frontiernet.net</a> (74.40.71.93) 11.948 ms 11.360 ms 17.911 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 7 ae2---0.<a href="http://scr01.sccs.nj.frontiernet.net" class="">scr01.sccs.nj.frontiernet.net</a> (74.40.3.249) 23.041 ms 19.068 ms 25.055 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 8 ae4---0.<a href="http://scr02.sccs.nj.frontiernet.net" class="">scr02.sccs.nj.frontiernet.net</a> (74.40.3.85) 20.968 ms 20.406 ms 21.639 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class=""> 9 ae1---0.<a href="http://scr01.asbn.va.frontiernet.net" class="">scr01.asbn.va.frontiernet.net</a> (74.40.4.110) 20.175 ms 20.010 ms 21.005 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class="">10 ae18---0.<a href="http://cor01.asbn.va.frontiernet.net" class="">cor01.asbn.va.frontiernet.net</a> (74.40.4.109) 21.798 ms 24.125 ms 21.715 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class="">11 ae0---0.<a href="http://cbr01.asbn.va.frontiernet.net" class="">cbr01.asbn.va.frontiernet.net</a> (74.40.2.174) 21.769 ms 21.780 ms 21.101 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class="">12 17.1.144.13 (17.1.144.13) 51.346 ms 23.238 ms 20.809 ms</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures" class="">13 <a href="http://world-any.aaplimg.com" class="">world-any.aaplimg.com</a> (17.253.144.10) 22.296 ms !Z 21.538 ms !Z 20.989 ms !Z</span></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">There's plenty of room for bypasses here - though, granted, with all the hops inside of Frontier, the only thing that would help would be Apple ingress nodes inside of Frontier's network.</div><div class=""><div class=""> -- Jerry</div></div><div class=""><br class=""></div></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family: Consolas;" class=""><span style="font-family: Courier; font-size: 14px;" class=""><br class=""></span></div></body></html>