[Cryptography] Pearl Harbor

[Jon Callas]

> On Jun 17, 2025, at 17:03, Henry Baker <hbaker1 at pipeline.com> wrote:
> 
> I don't want to start a flame war, but I am interested in the best estimates in 2025 of the state of American knowledge in December, 1941 of Japanese intentions.

You might enjoy this episode from 2024-11-03 of the "History Rage" podcast, one where every episode the guest is asked, "What's the one thing you wish everyone would just stop believing?" This leads into the discussion, and sometimes there's lots of swearing.

You can get History Rage on major platforms, or go to the Patreon web site:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/pearl-harbour-112676190

The historian is Ronald Drabkin, who's also known for his book, "Beverly Hills Spy: The Double-Agent War Hero Who Helped Japan Attack Pearl Harbor."

One of the comments historians I've read have made, including Drabkin, is that we should give the Japanese credit for doing a major operation. They planned a huge operation and actually succeeded. Scrambling around looking for other explanations quickly descends into xenophobia, and perhaps even starts there. (I'm on Team Starts There.)

It also sets up a situation where it's hard to dispassionately discuss if this was a good idea. (I'm on Team No, It Was Not, as were many people in Japan especially the ones educated in the US.) The strategy was hit them hard, hit them fast, so much it demoralizes them, and that's rarely a good idea, especially when striking a larger opponent.

John Levine's post is a good intro to the larger discussion, too. I believe that that podcast episode directly addresses your question, it's what we know in 2025, or at the worst, November 2024, which is close to 2025.

	Jon