[Cryptography] Has quantum cryptanalysis actually achieved anything?

[Henry Baker]

-----Original Message-----
From: Kent Borg <kentborg at borg.org>
Sent: Feb 25, 2025 1:54 PM
To: <cryptography at metzdowd.com>
Subject: Re: [Cryptography] Has quantum cryptanalysis actually achieved anything?

On 2/24/25 2:03 PM, Jon Callas wrote:
> (Cue the Bohr aphorism about how predictions are difficult, especially about the future.)

Actually, as humans, predicting the future is our superpower. We predict the future a lot. We depend on it. It is why 30-year mortgages are possible!

What is hard is predicting things we don't really understand. And what is *really* galling is not being better at predicting the future than are all our fellow humans. (I want to predict the stock market!)

-kb

P.S. Harder than predicting the future is predicting the *past*. ("If instead of A happening not-A had happened, then clearly foobar would have resulted.") Because the past isn't coming at us we can make asinine "would have happened" statements all we want, and as the past is politely receding it doesn't smack us in the face with a contradiction, No, not in the way the insensitive future does. Instead we get to assert that silly cliché "hindsight is 20/20" and we get to believe it. But 'taint true.

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Re: Harder than predicting the future is predicting the *past*

Old Soviet joke: "The future is certain, it is only the past that is unpredictable."

(The Soviets (and many others!) liked to change history to fit the current politics.
The current popcorn pastime is watching too many politicians try to disavow their
previous distaste for Trump.)