[Cryptography] Btcoin -- bubble or investment opportunity?

[grarpamp]

On Sun, Mar 2, 2014 at 6:15 PM, Phillip Hallam-Baker <hallam at gmail.com> wrote:
> 12 million bicoins x the price someone would pay for one bitcoin = $7
> billion???

Daily delta in BTC extant  x  daily price, both historical... would be closer to
another more real market cap. I've no idea what that amount would add up to.

> Seems to me that a better way to estimate the market cap of BitCoin is to
> look at what 1% of the float would fetch if it was offered for sale over a
> 24 hour period.

As a currency, yes that seems a better approach.
Some would guess to use network coin flux or exchange volume, but those
are obviously as incorrect to use figure real value as 'coins x price' is now.
24h...: Unfortunately the payment clearing houses (and the indies going direct
to exchange) don't seem to be reporting their volumes and fiats like
creditcards and corp stock filings do today. But I don't think that equates to
actual open float either, just settled trans.
As Ian said, lots of things like metric reporting get skipped when upstart
brick and mortar wannabees skip best b&m practices.

> Maybe $7.
> currencies are a medium of exchange and I see no
> evidence that is happening with BitCoin except on a proof of concept basis
> or buying drugs.

So we don't really know. Though $7 was a long time ago, ahem,
at least to the current price expectation in the market...

> will be worth a million dollars in a few years time??

Highly doubt it, I'd settle for stabile endpoint in $1-10k range.
Even if a regulatory dream happens, it probably won't scale to
truly support the valuation people on forums believe it will.