[Cryptography] MITM watch - Tor exit nodes patching binaries

[ianG]

On 9/12/2014 01:27 am, John Gilmore wrote:
>> A more intuitive explanation: in average, for every 1000 connections tested,
>>
>>       * 1 connection is MITM, and it is 100% certain that for that
>> connection there is a true positive test result, so there is 1 true
>> positive test result
>>       * 999 connections are not MITM, and among those connections there
>> are 5% false positive test results, so there are 49.95 false positive
>> test results
>>
>> therefore the probability that one of the connections among the 1 +
>> 49.95 = 50.95 positive test results really is an MITM is about 2%.
>
> This is exactly why anti-terror searches on airplanes are a useless
> waste of money, rights, and the time of every traveler (by far the
> largest expense).  The number of actual terrorists is so low that
> 99.99% of the "this might be a terrorist" events is about people who
> AREN'T terrorists.  So every traveler delayed, every water bottle
> confiscated, every airport shut down when someone walked thru the exit
> backwards, etc, is about a NON-terrorist event and thus is a cost
> imposed for no good reason.


Good point!  Perhaps we should all start wearing t-shirts with

       ask me to explain
       BASE RATE FALLACY

in huge letters 2nd line as we go through security.

iang