DIMACS Workshop on Information Markets, NJ Feb 2-4 2005

Linda Casals lindac at dimacs.rutgers.edu
Fri Jan 21 10:48:10 EST 2005


*****Registration Deadline January 26, 2005***********

*********************************************************************

DIMACS Workshop on Information Markets

      February 2-4, 2005
      DIMACS Center, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ

      http://dimacs.rutgers.edu/Workshops/Markets/

Organizers:

      Robin Hanson, George Mason University, rhanson -AA at TT- gmu.edu
      John Ledyard, California Institute of Technology, jledyard -AA at TT- hss.caltech.edu
      David Pennock, Yahoo! Research Labs, pennockd -AA at TT- yahoo-inc.com

Presented under the auspices of the Special Focus on Computation and
the Socio-Economic Sciences

*********************************************************************

A market designed for information gathering and forecasting is called
an information market. Information markets can be used to elicit a
collective estimate of the expected value or probability of a random
variable, reflecting information dispersed across a population of
traders. The degree to which market forecasts approach optimality in
practice, or at least surpass other known methods of forecasting, is
remarkable. Supporting evidence can be found in empirical studies of
options markets, commodity futures markets, political stock markets,
sports betting markets, horse racing markets, market games, laboratory
investigations of experimental markets, and field tests. In nearly all
these cases, market prices reveal a reliable forecast about the likely
unfolding of future events, often beating expert opinions or polls.

Despite a growing theoretical and experimental literature, many
questions remain regarding how best to design, deploy, analyze, and
understand information markets, including both technical challenges
and social challenges.

This workshop will include talks on information markets by a number of
distinguished invited speakers. Speakers will cover a range of topics
including mechanism design, experiments, analysis, policy, and
industry experience. Speakers will include representatives from
academia, industry, and government. The workshop will feature research
talks, opinions, reports of industry experience, and discussion of
government policy from the perspective of a number of fields,
including economics, business, finance, computer science,
gambling/gaming, and policy. See the workshop program for more
details: http://dimacs.rutgers.edu/Workshops/Markets/program.html

The workshop will feature a tutorial session on Wednesday afternoon
(Feb. 2, 2005) to help those new to the field get up to speed. The
workshop will include a panel discussion on the Policy Analysis Market
(a.k.a., "Terror Futures") and a "rump" session where anyone who
requests time can have the floor for five minutes to speak on any
relevant topic. To participate in the rump session, please email David
Pennock: pennockd --AA at TT- yahoo-inc.com.

*********************************************************************
Workshop Program:

tentative schedule, subject to change

Wednesday, February 2, 2005			
			
Tutorial Session I	

12:00 -  1:30  Lunch and Registration - 4th Floor, Lounge, CoRE Building
               Registration for the tutorial will be 
               limited to the first 60 registrations.	

 1:30 -  3:00  Information Markets I: Examples, Rules, History, Mechanics, 
               Studies, Participants, Ambiguity, Laws
               Joyce Berg, Accounting, University of Iowa

 3:00 -  3:30  break		
			
Tutorial Session II			

 3:30 -  5:00  Information Markets II: Theory, Outputs, Inputs, Foul Play, 
               Combinatorics, Applications
               Robin Hanson, Economics, George Mason University	

Thursday, February 3, 2005			
			
 8:15 -  8:45  Registration and Breakfast - 4th Floor, Lounge, CoRE Building		
 
 8:45 -  9:00  Welcome and Opening Remarks
               Fred Roberts, DIMACS Director and
               David Pennock, Yahoo! Research Labs
			
Session: Policy, Politics, & Open Questions			

 9:00 -  9:30  Michael Gorham, Business, Illinois Institute of Technology	
 
 9:30 -  9:55  Robert Hahn, AEI-Brookings Institute	
 
 9:55 - 10:20  Information Markets and Politics
               Adam Meirowitz, Politics, Princeton University and 
               Joshua Tucker, Public and International Affairs, Princeton University	
 
10:20 - 10:45  Five open questions about prediction markets
               Justin Wolfers, Business, University of Pennsylvania	
			
10:45 - 11:15  break		
			
Session: Experimental Economics			

11:15 - 11:40  An Experimental Test of Combinatorial Information Markets
               John Ledyard, Humanities and Social Sciences, 
               California Institute of Technology	

11:40 - 12:05  Information markets and decision makers
               Tony Kwasnica, Management Science, Pennsylvania State University	

12:05 - 12:30  Information aggregation: Experiments and industrial applications
               Kay-yut Chen, Hewlett Packard Labs	

12:30 -  2:00  Lunch		
			
Session: Business Models, Industry & Field Experience, Part I			

 2:00 -  2:15  Internal markets:  Why and for who?
               Carol Gebert, Incentive Markets	

 2:15 -  2:30  Tee Time with Admiral Poindexter
               Todd Proebsting, Microsoft Research	

 2:30 -  2:45  Information markets as a platform for improved corporate communications
               Steven Ostrover, EconOne	

 2:45 -  3:00  Challenges of Bringing Information Markets to the Organization
               Ken Kittlitz, The Foresight Exchange
	
 3:00 -  3:15  TBA		
			
 3:15 -  3:45  break		
			
Session: Design and Implementation			

 3:45 -  4:10  Carsten Schmidt, Max Planck Institute	
 
 4:10 -  4:35  Expert identification via virtual stock markets: Finding 
               lead users in consumer product markets
               Martin Spann, Business and Economics, Frankfurt University 

 4:35 -  5:00  Are prediction markets robust against manipulation? A lab experiment
               Martin Strobel,Economics, Maastricht University		
			
 5:00 -  6:00  Rump session	
                 I'm glad to see you've all discovered the Delphi method!
                 Murray Turoff, Information Systems, New Jersey Institute of Technology
 
                 Does money matter?
                 Emile-Servan Schrieber, Newsfutures
 
                 Auto-arbitrage in multi-outcome markets
                 Emile-Servan Schrieber, Newsfutures
	
 7:30 -  9:00  Banquet - the Holiday Inn in South Plainfield	
			
Friday, February 4, 2005			
			
 8:30 -  9:00  Registration and Breakfast - 4th Floor, Lounge, CoRE Building		
			
Session: Economics, Finance, and Gambling			

 9:00 -  9:30  Leighton Vaughn Williams, Economics, Nottingham University	

 9:30 -  9:55  Manipulation in prediction markets: Evidence from historical 
               and contemporary election markets
               Koleman Strumpf, Economics, University of North Carolina 

 9:55 - 10:20  Manipulators increase information market accuracy
               Robin Hanson, Economics, George Mason University	

10:20 - 10:45  Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market
               Ryan Oprea, Economics, George Mason University	
			
Session: Iowa Electronic Market			

11:15 - 11:40  George Neumann, Economics, University of Iowa	

11:40 - 12:05  Public signal bias and prediction market accuracy
               Thomas Gruca, Marketing, University of Iowa	

12:05 - 12:30  Searching for Google's value: Using prediction markets 
               to forecast market capitalization prior to an IPO
               Thomas Rietz, Finance, University of Iowa	

12:30 -  2:00  Lunch		
			
Session: Business Models, Industry & Field Experience, Part II			

 2:00 -  2:15  HedgeStreet: An introduction
               Russell Andersson, Hedgestreet.com

 2:15 -  2:30  Emile Servan-Schreiber, Newsfutures	

 2:30 -  2:45  Chris Hibbert, CommerceNet	

 2:45 -  3:00  Emphasizing the mundane: Making a business of information markets
               Charles Polk, Common Knowledge Markets

 3:00 -  3:15  TBA		
			
Session: Computation			

 3:45 -  4:10  Computational complexity issues in information markets
               Lance Fortnow, Computer Science, University of Chicago 

 4:10 -  4:35  Michael Wellman, Computer Science, University of Michigan	
 
 4:35 -  5:00  A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, 
               and information aggregation
               David Pennock, Yahoo! Research Labs	
			
 5:00 -  6:00  Post-mortem panel discussion on the Policy Analysis Market 
               (a.k.a., "Terror Futures")		
	       Robin Hanson, Economics, George Mason University	
	       John Ledyard, Humanities and Social Sciences, 
                         California Institute of Technology	
	       Charles Polk, Common Knowledge Markets

******************************************************************************

Registration Fees:

(Pre-registration deadline: January 26, 2005)

Please see website for additional registration information.

*********************************************************************
Information on participation, registration, accomodations, and travel
can be found at:

http://dimacs.rutgers.edu/Workshops/Markets/

    **PLEASE BE SURE TO PRE-REGISTER EARLY**


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