objectivity and factoring analysis

R. A. Hettinga rah at shipwright.com
Mon May 13 17:01:19 EDT 2002

At 9:45 AM -0700 on 5/13/02, bear wrote:

> One thousand years = 10 iterations of Moore's law plus one year.
> Call it 15-16 years?  Or maybe 20-21 since Moore's seems to have
> gotten slower lately?

Moore himself said in an article in Forbes a few years ago that the cost of
fabs themselves would eventually bring a stop to Moore's Law. He couldn't
see constructing a $100 billion dollar fab, and right now, fabs are in the
$1-$10 billion dollar range and going up...

He figured it to be the 20-teens or so for diminishing returns to finally
catch up with Moore's Law, if I remember right. If a water shortage on
Taiwan doesn't stop it dead in it's tracks this summer. ;-).


R. A. Hettinga <mailto: rah at ibuc.com>
The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation <http://www.ibuc.com/>
44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA
"... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity,
[predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to
experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'

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